Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 64.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football: 0.60 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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