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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.4% red zone pass rate.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate QBs in football this year with an impressive 67.0% Completion%, grading out in the 78th percentile.

Patrick Mahomes has been among the top TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 2.75 per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (72.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.3 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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