Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-275/+180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this game.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.9%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 9th-least passing touchdowns in the league: 1.40 per game since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.