Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.3 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.2%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.