Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 22

My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-260/+200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes has attempted 40.2 passes per game this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (67.1%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

More Patrick Mahomes Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow