Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 8:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.7 passes in this game, on average: the most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.

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