Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-142/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 65.9% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.1 passes in this game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.