Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.