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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.9% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league against the Houston Texans defense this year (65.2%).

The Houston Texans defense has allowed the least passing touchdowns in football: 0.85 per game this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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