Patrick Mahomes TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Denver Broncos defense this year (68.7%).
The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.75 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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