My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+170/-230).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Denver Broncos defense this year (68.7%).

The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.75 per game this year.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™