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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 66.1% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 43.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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