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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 8.16 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 7.12 figure last season.

The Buccaneers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the least run-oriented team in the NFL (35.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs.

In this game, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the model to garner the fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 3.5.

After taking on 15.6% of his team's rush attempts last season, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the run game this season, currently comprising just 9.4%.

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