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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

Patrick Mahomes has averaged 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among QBs (80th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.

After comprising 15.6% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the rushing attack this year, now accounting for just 9.9%.

The Chargers safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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