My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

Patrick Mahomes's running effectiveness (7.67 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (96th percentile when it comes to QBs).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs as the least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to accrue 3.7 rush attempts in this contest, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.

With a dreadful rate of 1.19 yards-after-contact (22nd percentile), Patrick Mahomes has been as one of the bottom running QBs in football this year.

This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles run defense has conceded a mere 102.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 4th-best in the NFL.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™