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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

Patrick Mahomes's ground effectiveness has been refined this year, compiling 7.92 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 7.12 figure last year.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 35.8% of their opportunities: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the model to accumulate the fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 3.3.

Patrick Mahomes has been much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this year (9.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.6%).

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

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