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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.

The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Patrick Mahomes's rushing efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 8.23 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 7.12 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

After making up 15.6% of his offense's carries last season, Patrick Mahomes has been less involved in the rushing attack this season, now comprising only 9.3%.

The Texans defense has had the 5th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.16 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

The Houston Texans defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to run defense.

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