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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite this week.

The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 148.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Patrick Mahomes's 8.04 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year indicates a significant growth in his rushing prowess over last year's 7.12 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in football (33.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.

After accounting for 15.6% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the running game this season, now taking on only 9.5%.

The Browns linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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