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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).

Patrick Mahomes's rushing effectiveness (7.47 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (88th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).

The Bills defensive tackles rank as the 8th-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.6 offensive plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

After accounting for 15.6% of his offense's carries last season, Patrick Mahomes has played a smaller part in the ground game this season, now accounting for only 9.4%.

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