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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, comprising 14.4% of his offense's rush attempts last year, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

Patrick Mahomes has picked up 24.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to QBs (82nd percentile).

With a stellar total of 7.1 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (100th percentile), Patrick Mahomes ranks among the leading running QBs in the league last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 34.9% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.

The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league last year when it comes to stopping the run.

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