Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
In regards to run-blocking (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs grades out as the best in the league last year.
Patrick Mahomes has rushed for significantly more yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
Patrick Mahomes's 8.77 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year shows a a noteable growth in his rushing proficiency over last year's 7.01 mark.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 38.1% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
With an atrocious tally of 0.62 yards-after-contact (22nd percentile), Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the worst running QBs in football this year.

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