Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to garner 4.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has been a much bigger part of his team's run game this year (22.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (13.6%).
The Chiefs O-line ranks as the best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Patrick Mahomes has generated 23.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football when it comes to quarterbacks (76th percentile).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jets defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 3.70 yards-per-carry.
Jets defensive ends project as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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