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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-165/+135).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 133.4 total plays called: the most on the slate this week.

Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to call his own number, taking on 14.7% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in the NFL last year.

Patrick Mahomes has grinded out 25.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among quarterbacks (82nd percentile).

Patrick Mahomes's rushing efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 7.83 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 7.01 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

In this week's game, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to earn the 2nd-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 3.1.

Opposing teams have run for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 101.0 per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.

The Ravens defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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