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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by the model to garner the 8th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 4.1.

Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, comprising 13.9% of his offense's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among quarterbacks.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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