Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-137/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to notch 4.4 carries in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks.
Accounting for 15.4% of his offense's rush attempts this year (82nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Patrick Mahomes's mobility marks him as a serious threat in Kansas City's rushing attack.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the best in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
Patrick Mahomes's 28.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a significant gain in his running skills over last season's 21.0 figure.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Bills linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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