Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.1 carries in this contest, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.6% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among QBs.
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in football last year.
Patrick Mahomes's 28.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a significant growth in his running prowess over last season's 21.0 figure.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.

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