Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Patrick Mahomes has grinded out 21.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among QBs (78th percentile).
Patrick Mahomes's rushing efficiency (7.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (86th percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the bottom QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 1.22 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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