Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (16.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's ground effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 6.27 yards-per-carry compared to a 7.45 mark last season.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.