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Patrick Mahomes
NFL · Player Props
Patrick Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
Rushing Yards
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022 Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -145.

Favors Over
  • The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (16.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have utilized some form of misdirection on 67.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.
Favors Under
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Patrick Mahomes's ground effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 6.27 yards-per-carry compared to a 7.45 mark last season.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
  • The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
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