Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.5 carries in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (19.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.7% in games he has played).
Patrick Mahomes has generated 19.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among quarterbacks (76th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 6.30 yards-per-carry vs a 7.45 rate last year.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.37 yards-per-carry.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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