Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:35 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (13.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.