Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 13, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Patrick Mahomes has picked up 21.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (78th percentile).
Patrick Mahomes's running efficiency (6.77 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (82nd percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.2 rush attempts this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 1.22 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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