Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:21 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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