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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.29 yards-per-carry.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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