Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (15.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Patrick Mahomes has grinded out 20.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among QBs (77th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 32.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Patrick Mahomes's rushing effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling just 6.65 yards-per-carry vs a 7.45 figure last year.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.