Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (14.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.7% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 21.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in football among quarterbacks (76th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.