Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-119/-121).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 9th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (17.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.