Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (14.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.9% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Patrick Mahomes has run for significantly more yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 32.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 4.27 yards-per-carry.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.