Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to accumulate 4.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (17.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 96 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 2nd-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.