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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (16.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).

Patrick Mahomes has generated 23.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among QBs (77th percentile).

Patrick Mahomes's ground effectiveness (7.00 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (83rd percentile among QBs).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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