Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (16.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
Patrick Mahomes has generated 23.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among QBs (77th percentile).
Patrick Mahomes's ground effectiveness (7.00 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (83rd percentile among QBs).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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