My Account Log Out

reorder

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-145/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.2 carries in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (17.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.14 yards-per-carry.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

More Patrick Mahomes Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™