Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (18.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.5% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.