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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-469).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +416 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +269.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (12.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.4% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 35.1% red zone run rate.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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