Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+386/-804).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +389 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +386.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (9.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (3.5% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 35.4% red zone run rate.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the league (0.58 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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