Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 235.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 230.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 235.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (64.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with a fantastic 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 81st percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-highest clip in football vs. the Raiders defense this year (72.1% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
At the moment, the 7th-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Chiefs.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Raiders, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.0 per game) this year.
Patrick Mahomes's 233.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies an impressive diminishment in his passing prowess over last year's 274.0 figure.
This year, the formidable Raiders defense has conceded a paltry 195.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-fewest in football.