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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-127/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 239.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 239.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.7% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.

In this week's game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by our trusted projection set to have the 3rd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.8.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

With a terrific 70.0% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate passers in the NFL.

With a terrific 7.72 adjusted yards-per-target (77th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes rates among the most efficient passers in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (247.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).

This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded a mere 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-lowest rate in football.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco's LB corps has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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