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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 21

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 258.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 249.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 258.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chiefs as the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see just 132.5 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes this week, on balance: the most out of all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Patrick Mahomes's 248.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a noteable drop-off in his throwing proficiency over last year's 274.0 rate.

This year, the imposing Bills defense has surrendered a mere 203.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 8th-fewest in the league.

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