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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 233.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 231.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.6% pass rate.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the model to call 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a whopping 61.0 per game on average).

The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 35.3 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 9th-most out of all quarterbacks.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (249.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).

The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, giving up 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-fewest in the league.

The Broncos defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the league.

The Broncos safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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