Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 13, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 270.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 269.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 270.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the most pass-heavy team in football (69.3% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the porous Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a massive 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the highest rate in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, surrendering 9.86 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Denver's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a heavy 10.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.4 per game) this year.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (260.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).

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