Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 272.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 275.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 272.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 316.0 yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.
The New York Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes's passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 63.4%.
Patrick Mahomes's passing efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a measly 7.00 yards-per-target vs a 8.54 rate last year.
The New York Jets pass defense has shown good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 6.88 yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in football.

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