Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 287.5 (-135/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 317.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 60.3%.
Patrick Mahomes's passing effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 6.34 yards-per-target vs a 8.54 figure last season.

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