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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 263.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 260.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 263.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

Patrick Mahomes has attempted 38.8 passes per game this year, grading out in the 97th percentile among quarterbacks.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Patrick Mahomes's 276.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy decline in his passing ability over last season's 325.0 rate.

Patrick Mahomes's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a measly 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 rate last season.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in football.

The 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in football.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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