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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 258.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 260.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 258.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.

In this game, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL versus the Bills defense this year (74.1% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.8 per game) this year.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (277.0) this year than he did last year (325.0).

Patrick Mahomes's 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target this season marks a significant diminishment in his passing effectiveness over last season's 8.5% rate.

This year, the stout Bills defense has yielded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a feeble 4.1 YAC.

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